Half of Southeast Asia’s pre-owned smartphone market belonged to Apple in the first half of 2025, with 15% year-on-year growth and the iPhone 12 and 13 as its best sellers (Stryjak, 2025). For anyone planning around the smartphone market in Southeast Asia, I think that figure matters more than any launch calendar, because it shows buyers already reaching for premium phones on terms the new-phone business wasn’t offering.
The 2026 price shock widened that gap. Counterpoint’s five-market tracker shows phones under $150 losing 38% of their shipments year on year in Q2 2026, even as the $500–$699 tier gained 74%, after brands lifted prices and pulled back from the entry end (Jain, 2026). This outlook covers Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, speaks to phone brands, telcos and third-party sellers, and names the market behind any figure that isn’t region-wide.
My view is that growth in this business through 2027 will come less from selling new phones than from financing them and giving them a second life. Brands, telcos and sellers should stop waiting for GenAI or a volume rebound and rebuild around the monthly payment, the trade-in and the pre-owned device, a view I’d revise only if memory prices ease well before H2 2027 and cheap entry phones return. I expect search to show this first, as buyers’ questions move from “which spec?” to “what does it cost per month?” and “what is my old phone worth?”
In brief: Memory costs are squeezing the entry tier that carries most regional volume (Omdia, 2026), and Counterpoint sees the global market recovering only in 2028 (Wang, 2026). I don’t think GenAI will restart mass upgrades, because price and affordable 5G handsets are doing that work. The money is shifting to bundles, instalments and trade-in, and your 2027 plan and search content should follow it.
Premium growth is hiding a shrinking core
Channel plans still start from volume, and volume has stalled. Shipments to Southeast Asia totalled 100 million units in 2025 on Omdia’s numbers, 1% fewer than a year earlier (Omdia, 2026), while Counterpoint’s five-market tracker registered a 15% drop in Q2 2026 against the same quarter of 2025, its sharpest since Q1 2023 (Jain, 2026). Different analysts and country baskets sit behind the two series, so they can’t be joined, but they point the same way.
Memory is the cause, and the sources say so directly. For phones under US$200, which make up over 60% of Southeast Asian shipments, memory and storage already account for more than 30% of component costs (Omdia, 2026), and Counterpoint links the entry-level collapse to brands abandoning thin-margin models as costs climbed (Jain, 2026). Worldwide, Counterpoint had mobile LPDDR4/5 prices on course to triple between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, with the pressure lasting through H2 2027 (Wang, 2026). That global component figure isn’t a regional retail one, but it sets the clock.
Growth now survives only at the top of the price ladder.
| Price band (SEA-5, Q2 2026) | Shipments, year on year |
|---|---|
| Sub-$150 | −38% |
| $250–$499 | −11% |
| $500–$699 | +74% |
| Above $700 | +18% |
Source: Jain, 2026.
Share followed the money, with Samsung leading on 24% (the page’s summary puts it at 23%) and Apple holding 9% (Jain, 2026). I read this as the mature-market pattern arriving through a cost shock rather than saturation, with value holding up better than volume and pooling in premium-capable brands. With over 60% of volume still under US$200, I don’t expect a premium-heavy Western market, and I’d revisit this read if memory eases early or the 74% proves a one-quarter spike.
The complication is that the channel’s volume engine is failing too. Omdia finds that higher costs leave brands less room to fund retailer rebates or push stock into the channel (Omdia, 2026), a hard hit for retailers such as Erajaya, which ran a 10.9% gross profit margin in FY2025 (PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk [Erajaya], 2026). With no global rebound expected before 2028 (Wang, 2026), a 2027 plan built on new-unit sell-in has nothing to lean on unless GenAI restarts the upgrade cycle.
GenAI won’t restart upgrades; price and 5G will
My call is that GenAI remains a top-of-the-range feature in Southeast Asia through 2027, and that the upgrades still happening are pulled by price and cheap 5G handsets. The capability sits on phones most of the region’s buyers can’t reach, and it hasn’t yet changed minds where it is available. The call breaks if buyers start naming GenAI as their reason to upgrade, or if it reaches the sub-US$200 phones that carry most regional volume.
Counterpoint projects GenAI-capable models rising from 36% of worldwide shipments in 2025 to 45% in 2026 and 52% in 2027, but notes the capability is standard only above $400 wholesale and has so far failed to persuade people to trade up (Pathak & Chauhan, 2026). In a region where over 60% of phones sell below US$200 at retail, a directional comparison rather than a like-for-like one, the feature misses most buyers.
Price and the network move buyers instead. AIS says Thai IT retail in FY2025 benefited from “accelerated purchasing” as shoppers worried that tariffs would push device prices up (Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited [AIS], 2026). PLDT’s 5G devices rose 35% to 11.2 million, 19% of handsets on its Philippine network, a gain it attributes to wider supply of “affordable 5G handsets” (PLDT Inc., 2026). Vietnam’s 2024 switch-off, when more than 10 million 2G subscribers needed new devices, showed policy can force migration too, even after the cut-off slipped to 15 October 2024 (Dat, 2024; Khang, 2024).
Brands should keep GenAI in the premium pitch and fight for the entry tier locally. I expect consolidation to thin that tier while localised challengers gain, as HONOR did by doubling 2025 shipments with telco-focused models such as the 400 Smart (Omdia, 2026) and growing 61% in Q2 2026 while Xiaomi, OPPO and Transsion shrank (Jain, 2026); I’d drop that call if those three regain share once memory eases.
If you run a telco, the network is your strongest upgrade lever, but PLDT’s experience says it works through cheap 5G handsets rather than flagships. Sellers, in turn, meet buyers who open with cost and timing, because “is a new phone worth it now, and what will it cost later?” has replaced “which spec?” Once price decides whether someone upgrades, the next question is how they’ll pay.
The monthly payment becomes the real price tag
My call is that telco bundles and financing will become a more important route to mid-to-premium phones as prices rise, and that retailers will earn more from financing, protection and attach than from units. The only growing bands sit above US$500, and buyers stretching into them need the cost broken into months. I’d rethink this if vendors restore rebates once memory eases, or if telcos won’t scale thin-margin device sales.
CelcomDigi already spreads device costs across contracts of up to 36 months for Malaysian customers, and names bundled device sales as the main engine of its 9M 2025 revenue growth (CelcomDigi Berhad, 2025). In Thailand, COM7 sees shoppers increasingly favouring credit and instalment plans, and it sells device protection alongside the hardware (COM7 Public Company Limited [COM7], 2026). The US shows where this leads: with sell-through 36% below its 2017 peak, dealers lean on insurance, accessories and repairs to stay profitable (Counterpoint Research, 2024).
If you run a telco, treat the device as a subscriber tool rather than a profit line: AIS lifted SIM and device sales 15% in FY2025 while its net sales margin slipped to 4.9% from 5.6% (AIS, 2026). Sellers face the mirror image, because when rebates weaken, margin has to come from the credit, protection and accessories around the phone, though three listed companies aren’t the whole channel.
Telcos don’t own the monthly payment by default. Indonesian bank BNPL balances reached Rp31.56 trillion in July 2026, up 31.22% year on year when bank consumption credit overall grew 5.38%, and BNPL from finance companies rose 54.65% (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan [OJK], 2026). Those figures cover all purchase categories, not phones, but they show fast-growing credit outside the telco bill that could hand the payment to retailers and marketplaces.
Buyers now compare the monthly cost of plan plus device, and choose on how they can pay as much as on price. Financing stretches a budget, though, and does nothing for the buyer who won’t buy new at all.
The phone’s second life becomes a product line
I expect trade-in, refurbished and used devices to take a larger share of Southeast Asian device transactions by 2027, as buyers keep their phones longer. My bet is that shoppers who can no longer afford a new entry model will look second-hand rather than go without. That call fails if pre-owned growth stays near its pre-shock pace while new prices rise, meaning buyers simply delay, or if memory costs normalise before the end of 2027.
The direction was set before the shock. The region’s pre-owned market grew 5% in H1 2025, supplied partly by retailer trade-in schemes and Samsung’s tie-up with Laku6 (Carousell Group), although China remains the main source of imports (Stryjak, 2025). Online platforms are driving consumer-to-consumer refurbished sales as buyers grow more comfortable dealing with each other digitally (Stryjak, 2025). These are pre-2026 growth rates, not market sizes, so they show a path buyers were already on.
Counterpoint also expects the global secondary and refurbished market to grow 13% in 2026, and sees some sub-$150 price tiers disappearing for good (Wang, 2026). In the UK, phones acquired more than 42 months earlier made up 16% of those in use in 2026, twice the 8% of 2019 (Deloitte LLP, 2026).
Brands must decide who owns the new-versus-used decision: you, through official trade-in and software-support promises, or the reseller. If you run a telco, trade-in is the lever US carriers used, lifting trade-in values as upgrade rates sank to record lows (Counterpoint Research, 2024). Sellers gain most, since certified refurbished suits shoppers squeezed out of the new entry tier, provided they earn the trust that online used buying runs on.
Buyers in every channel now ask what their phone is worth and whether a used premium model is the smarter buy, and online they look for grading, warranty and seller credibility. All three shifts, though, assume memory stays expensive through 2027, and that assumption deserves the hardest test.
Early memory relief would break this view
The biggest risk is cheaper memory. If prices ease well before H2 2027, OEMs could return to the sub-$150 tier, weakening my premium, consolidation, financing and second-life calls at once (Wang, 2026), so Counterpoint’s memory-price updates are the signal to watch.
The strongest evidence against me is AIS’s report that Thai buyers bought early in 2025 on fears of tariff-related price rises, alongside PLDT’s finding that affordable 5G handsets drive upgrades. My reading is that buyers pull purchases forward ahead of expected rises and hold back once prices have risen, which fits Counterpoint’s view that wary consumers may replace phones less often (Jain, 2026); an SEA device-age survey showing flat holding periods would prove me wrong.
Credit is the next test. Indonesian finance-company BNPL carries a 3.03% gross NPF (OJK, 2026), an all-category figure I use only as a proxy for credit health, not a phone default rate, and a rise would tighten instalment lending. GenAI becoming a stated upgrade reason would sink my first shift, and a squeeze on China-sourced used supply could cap second-life volume whatever demand does.
Where to focus SEO effort in 2027
The shifts leave your buyers with three questions: is a new phone worth it now, what will it cost per month, and what is my old one worth? Each segment answers them differently.
Mobile brands (OEMs)
- Give mid-range and premium models your deepest pages, with head-to-head comparisons and honest upgrade-value guides. This serves the price-and-5G shift’s buyer weighing a new phone against keeping theirs; cut new content for ultra-budget lines.
- Publish explainers on why phones cost more and how much storage buyers need. The same shift made price fear a trigger, so keep per-market price pages current.
- Keep AI pages use-case-led and on premium models only. GenAI isn’t moving upgrades (first shift), so budget-focused “AI phone” pages miss the buyer’s real question.
- Build market- and language-specific model pages, including telco variants. Buyers meet brands through local telco and retail offers (first two shifts); update or redirect discontinued lines.
- Publish official trade-in and software-longevity pages per market. They answer the second-life shift’s “what’s my phone worth, and is used smarter?” before resellers do.
Telcos
- Build phone-plus-plan pages per mid-to-premium model, with monthly and total-cost explainers. The monthly-payment shift has subscribers comparing cost per month.
- Create 5G-compatibility, affordable-5G-phone and migration guides. In the first shift, 5G means a cheap handset for many subscribers, so give entry-priced 5G models their own plan pages.
- Publish trade-in value, upgrade-eligibility and device-care content. The second-life shift brings owners of older phones asking whether to trade in or keep going.
Third-party sellers
- Build instalment and BNPL pages by model, with protection and accessory bundles. The monthly-payment shift means buyers choose on how they can pay; start in Indonesia and Thailand, where the evidence sits.
- Create certified-refurbished category pages with visible trust signals. The second-life shift runs on trust, so lead with grading, warranty and authenticity pages plus trade-in calculators, iPhone-led, per market.
- Publish Bahasa Indonesia pages on official availability, warranty and payment options. They join the payment question and the trust need where the credit evidence sits, though the language priority is my inference.
Plan around the H2 2027 memory window
Counterpoint sees the memory squeeze running through H2 2027 and recovery arriving in 2028 (Wang, 2026), so build your plan to that window, in this order:
- Price the phone as a monthly figure. Telcos and sellers should lead with monthly cost on mid-to-premium models and wrap protection and attach around it.
- Launch the second-life line before 2027 budgets close. Offer trade-in in every segment, certified refurbished as a seller and longevity promises as a brand.
- Reset the upgrade pitch. Sell GenAI as premium use cases and lead 5G with affordable handsets.
- Set a memory-price review trigger. If prices ease before H2 2027, revisit entry-tier and rebate plans; I’d still expect whoever holds the monthly bill and the trade-in to keep the buyer.
References
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CelcomDigi Berhad. (2025, November 17). Interim financial report for the third quarter and financial period ended 30 September 2025. https://celcomdigi.listedcompany.com/newsroom/CelcomDigi_Bursa_Q3_2025.pdf
COM7 Public Company Limited. (2026, May 12). Management discussion and analysis Q1/2026. COM7 investor relations. https://s3.irplus.in.th/ir-prod/listed/COM7/mda/COM7_q1_2026_en.pdf
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